Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
No, prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average, though the picture varies by category, item, retailer, and location, with some relief on specific goods and at discounters.[1]
Overall Consumer Prices (US)
As of the latest detailed data (September 2026 CPI from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics):
Prices have not fallen overall; inflation remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, though cooler than the 2021–2023 peaks.
Grocery/Store Food Prices (“Food at Home”)
This is the most direct measure of prices paid in grocery and similar stores:
Category variations (approx. YoY as of Sep 2026):
Individual staples (BLS average prices) show mixed results—e.g., eggs and butter cheaper, ground beef and some others higher.[7]
Cumulative grocery prices remain substantially elevated versus pre-pandemic levels (e.g., ~30%+ since early 2020).[8]
Retailer and Regional Notes
Bottom Line
Store prices (especially groceries) have cooled significantly from prior high-inflation periods and show only mild year-over-year increases on average, with genuine declines in some high-profile items (eggs, certain dairy) and at value-focused retailers. However, the broad basket is not lower than a year ago—shoppers still face higher average costs, even if the rate of increase is low and select deals or switches can offset it. Official CPI data (BLS) is the most reliable national benchmark; local receipts or apps can differ due to promotions, private labels, shrinkflation, or regional factors. Data evolves monthly with new CPI releases.
Citations (11)
- https://chart.ly/inflation-report/september-2026
Backs: “No, prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average, though the picture varies by category, item, retailer, and location, with some relief on specific goods and at discounters.”
- https://vernumo.com/en/data/inflation
Backs: “All-items CPI was up 3.7% year-over-year (higher than the 3.4% in August).”
- https://inflationtheguide.com/news/us-core-cpi-november-2026
Backs: “Later reports (e.g., November 2026) showed headline CPI around 3.1%, still positive.”
- http://www-tx.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings
Backs: “All-food was +2.5%; food away from home (restaurants) was higher at +3.5%.”
- https://decadata.io/blog/2026-10-26-october-food-at-home-inflation-our-nowcast-is-1-9
Backs: “October nowcasts suggested similar low-single-digit increases (~1.9%).”
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/charts/cpi-cpi_rc_1cpibycat.stm
Backs: “Cereals/bakery and other foods: modestly higher (~1.8–2.1%).”
- https://www.preparedstates.com/grocery-prices
Backs: “Individual staples (BLS average prices) show mixed results—e.g., eggs and butter cheaper, ground beef and some others higher.”
- https://americandefault.org/indicators/grocery-prices-cumulative-change-since-jan-2020/
Backs: “Cumulative grocery prices remain substantially elevated versus pre-pandemic levels (e.g., ~30%+ since early 2020).”
- https://grocerytrader.co.uk/more-than-a-third-of-aldi-products-now-cheaper-than-a-year-ago/
Backs: “In the UK (and with US parallels), a third or more of products at Aldi/Lidl were cheaper than a year earlier (as of late 2026 data), with many others unchanged and average prices slightly down or flat—outperforming broader grocery inflation (~2.5% in the UK). They continue aggressive price investments.”
- https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-sellers-tout-savings-to-attract-cash-strapped-shoppers-2026-9
Backs: “Major US chains (Walmart, Kroger, Costco, etc.) have announced targeted rollbacks, promotions, and private-label pushes amid competition and softer consumer spending, but this has not produced broad deflation. Overall baskets are typically still higher YoY.”
- https://www.wishtv.com/news/business/strategic-grocery-shopping-tips/
Backs: “Prices can vary significantly by store, metro area, and shopping strategy (warehouse clubs and discounters often cheapest).”