Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

Checking if store prices have actually fallen from a year ago — pulling the latest inflation and grocery data.

No - on average, prices in stores are still higher than a year ago, not lower. Inflation has slowed, but prices have not fallen.

•Overall consumer prices: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year-over-year in September 2026, up from 3.4% in both July and August.

•Grocery / food at home:

•Food at home rose 1.8% over the year to September 2026

•The BLS September 2026 report covering food purchased for home consumption showed it cost 1.8% more than a year earlier

•Other summaries: Grocery prices rose 1.8% and Grocery prices aren't falling. The food-at-home index rose 1.8% over the year to September 2026

•Retail store data beyond BLS CPI:

•The average price paid for the top 500 items in September increased 2.1% year-over-year

•The average price paid for the top 500 items in October increased 2.2% year-over-year

Why it feels like prices didn't come down even though inflation slowed:

> Inflation measures how fast prices are rising, not how high they are. When food inflation "falls", prices are still going up, just more slowly than before. For prices to actually come down you need deflation, and across a whole grocery basket that is rare.

> Every CPI headline also compares this month with the same month a year ago. So the big jumps of 2022 and 2023 have dropped out of the comparison. They haven't dropped out of your trolley.

> Grocery prices are still high because they went up a lot and very rarely come back down.

Exceptions - some individual items are lower than a year ago, but not the basket as a whole:

•Food-at-home prices slipped 0.1% from August to September and still sit higher than a year ago - a monthly dip does not mean year-over-year is lower.

•Within groceries: Egg prices were 23.0% lower than a year earlier, chicken was down 2.3%, butter was down 8.3% - while beef and veal, coffee and other items were up significantly.

No official year-over-year reading was published for October 2026 because:

> No annual inflation readings will be published for October, due to a data gap stemming from the government shutdown last year.

Citations (2)

1kerneleconomics.comNot yet classified
Why Grocery Prices Are Still High
Backs: “Inflation measures how fast prices are rising, not how high they are. When food inflation "falls", prices are still going up, just more slowly than before.”
2morningstar.comData and tools
October CPI Forecasts Show Inflation Softening, but December Rate Hike Still Looks Likely
Backs: “Within groceries: Egg prices were 23.0% lower than a year earlier, chicken was down 2.3%, butter was down 8.3% - while beef and veal, coffee and other items were up significantly. No official year-over-year reading was published for October 2026 because: No annual inflation readings will be published for October, due…”