Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Exploring what evidence says about U.S. voter fraud — gathering recent data and research.

In the United States documented voter fraud exists but research consistently finds it vanishingly rare:

•Incident rates are very low.

•Brennan Center for Justice longitudinal research found incident rates between approximately 0.0003% and 0.0025% in studied contests — meaning roughly 1 to 25 fraudulent votes per million cast

•Another Brennan Center analysis found voter impersonation occurs at a rate between 0.0003% and 0.0025%

•In a 2016 study analyzing 42 jurisdictions (23.5 million votes), election officials referred only about 30 total incidents of fraudulent voting; a fraud rate of roughly 0.0001 per cent

•Counts vs. total ballots cast:

•The Heritage Foundation (a conservative think tank) maintains a database of proven election fraud cases dating back to 1982. It reports only around 1,600 total proven instances of voter fraud that led to criminal convictions, overturned elections, civil penalties, or official findings

•Another summary lists 1,561 instances of voter fraud resulting in 1,325 convictions — across decades of elections nationwide

•As of August 2026 it listed 1,619 cases spanning several decades. Set against the more than 1 billion votes cast in that time, that is under 0.0002% of ballots

Specific state calculations:

•In Arizona across 36 elections and 42.6 million ballots there were 36 documented cases—about 0.0000845% of ballots

•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail ballots over two decades called mail-in fraud "exceedingly rare" and reported rates on the order of 0.00006 percent of votes nationally

•A 2020 Stanford and MIT study of vote-by-mail states found rates of mail-in ballot fraud between 0.00006 and 0.00004 per cent

•Impact on outcomes: No major academic study, court ruling, or official investigation has found evidence of fraud at a scale sufficient to change a statewide election outcome. Brookings' review of Heritage data found that no federal outcome was changed in the samples examined.

Following the 2020 post-election audits and litigation, including full hand recounts and federal reviews, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, along with federal and state law enforcement, said the 2020 election was 'the most secure in American history.'

More than sixty lawsuits challenged the 2020 presidential results. Courts — including those with Trump-appointed judges — dismissed virtually all of them for lack of evidence.

•What does occur: Fraud is not zero. The most documented cases have involved absentee/mail ballot fraud — including the 2018 North Carolina 9th Congressional District case, where a political operative was convicted of collecting and tampering with absentee ballots, leading to the entire election being voided and rerun. Other proven cases have included registration fraud, double voting, vote buying, and impersonation fraud, but research has repeatedly found impersonation in particular to be extremely rare.

•Why perception differs from evidence: Researchers note that administrative errors — duplicate entries, outdated addresses, deceased voters not yet purged — are common and routinely cited as fraud evidence, but they reflect administrative lag rather than intentional fraud. Large-scale data matching also consistently produces false positives.

In summary, studies across the political spectrum agree fraud happens in isolated cases and is prosecuted when found, but measured rates are on the order of a few per million ballots, below the threshold that would regularly decide statewide or federal elections.

Citations (3)

1projectplaybook.comNot yet classified
DAY 2 - FRAUD CLAIMS AND EVIDENCE: WHAT THE RESEARCH ACTUALLY SHOWS
Backs: “In the United States documented voter fraud exists but research consistently finds it vanishingly rare: Incident rates are very low. Brennan Center for Justice longitudinal research found incident rates between approximately 0.0003% and 0.0025% in studied contests — meaning roughly 1 to 25 fraudulent votes per million…”
2theevidencematters.comNot yet classified
Voter Fraud: What It Is and What the Evidence Shows
Backs: “Brennan Center for Justice longitudinal research found incident rates between approximately 0.0003% and 0.0025% in studied contests — meaning roughly 1 to 25 fraudulent votes per million cast. Another Brennan Center analysis found voter impersonation occurs at a rate between 0.0003% and 0.0025%”
3medium.comBlogs and newsletters
Who Controls the Ballot Box?
Backs: “Another Brennan Center analysis found voter impersonation occurs at a rate between 0.0003% and 0.0025%. In a 2016 study analyzing 42 jurisdictions (23.5 million votes), election officials referred only about 30 total incidents of fraudulent voting; a fraud rate of roughly 0.0001 per cent”