Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization today feels sharp — I'll pull historical comparisons to gauge whether it really is worse than past eras.

It depends what period you mean by "the past" - and what kind of polarization you measure:

1. Compared to the last 50-70 years: Yes, by most measures it is worse

•Congressional / elite polarization is at a record high for the measurable era.

Political scientists measure elite polarization with DW-NOMINATE, which places every member of Congress on a left-right scale based on roll-call votes, allowing the 119th Congress and the 46th to be compared directly.

By that metric:

> Congress is more divided than at any point since political scientists began measuring it in 1879 — and the data can prove it. DW-NOMINATE scores ... trace a U: a bitterly split Gilded Age, a mid-century convergence that bottomed out in 1947, and a steep climb since the 1970s that passed the old 1895 record in 2011 and has not stopped since

Other descriptions of the same data:

> The current House and Senate are the most polarized since the Civil War

> Polarization of the Democratic and Republican Parties is higher than at any time since the end of the Civil War

> The results from DW-NOMINATE indicate that the level of polarization in Congress is now the highest since the end of the Civil War and shows no sign that it will abate

The headline number is the House party gap:

> 0.91 House party gap - The widest distance between the parties since scores begin in 1879 — up from 0.52 at the 1947 low

Which also appears as: up from a 0.52 low in 1947 — the widest since 1879

•Ideological distance among voters and legislators is the widest in at least 50 years.

> Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years

The same analysis notes:

> A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found the perception that polarization has increased is correct: Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years

In concrete terms:

> In the 117th U.S. Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans. For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972

> Political polarization is the highest it's been in the last 25 years, Pew Research Center pointed out... In 1987, the partisan gap was at 10 percentage points, and has now nearly doubled, hovering at 18 percentage points

> According to the Pew Research Center, members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014

The U.S. has also experienced:

> a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies

•Affective polarization - disliking the other side - has risen sharply.

Scholars distinguish ideological polarization (differences between policy positions) and affective polarization (a dislike and distrust of political out-groups).

Following a period of much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, there was:

> high levels of political bipartisanship, the results of a post-World War II "consensus" in American politics, as well as ideological diversity within each of the two major parties

Since the 1970s:

> Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases in polarization during the 2000s onwards

2. Compared to the deepest fractures in American history: No, it is not worse than the 1850s-1860s or Gilded Age

Historians consistently caution against "more divided than ever" claims:

> As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century

> It has become common to say that the United States in 2020 is more divided politically and culturally than at any other point in our national past

But:

> To compare anything that has transpired in the past few years to this cataclysmic upheaval represents a spectacular lack of understanding about American history

Examples given:

> Four years of civil war produced at least 620,000 military deaths – the equivalent of approximately 6.5 million dead in the United States of 2020

> No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness

That earlier era included:

> On May 22, 1856, U.S. Rep. Preston Brooks of South Carolina caned Sen. Charles Sumner of Massachusetts into bloody insensibility on the floor of the Senate chamber

> On April 14, 1865, a member of the most celebrated family of actors in the United States expressed his unhappiness with Abraham Lincoln by shooting him in the back of the head

> seven slaveholding states seceded between Dec. 20 and Feb. 1, 1861. Four of the remaining eight slaveholding states followed suit between April and June 1861

The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870 – 1900) is also considered:

> to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history, with open political violence and highly polarized political discourse

Bottom line

•If "the past" = the post-World War II, relatively consensual period (1940s-1970s) or even the last 50 years: Yes — by DW-NOMINATE scores, Pew ideological consistency scales, and ANES feeling thermometers, the U.S. is more ideologically sorted, more affectively hostile, and has fewer cross-party moderates and overlap districts than at any time since those measures began.

•If "the past" = the entire sweep of American history: No — the secession crisis, Civil War, Reconstruction, and the violent Gilded Age were objectively more polarized and more lethal. Most historians argue the current period is the most polarized since the Civil War/Reconstruction era, not more polarized than that era itself.

Citations (3)

1connectrealdots.comNot yet classified
Political Polarization | ConnectRealDots
Backs: “Compared to the last 50-70 years: Yes, by most measures it is worse. Congressional / elite polarization is at a record high for the measurable era. Political scientists measure elite polarization with DW-NOMINATE, which places every member of Congress on a left-right scale based on roll-call votes, allowing the 119th…”
2wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Political polarization in the United States
Backs: “Political polarization is the highest it's been in the last 25 years, Pew Research Center pointed out... In 1987, the partisan gap was at 10 percentage points, and has now nearly doubled, hovering at 18 percentage points. According to the Pew Research Center, members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of…”
3intellectualtakeout.orgNot yet classified
Think the U.S. Is More Polarized Than Ever? You Don’t Know History - Intellectual Takeout
Backs: “Compared to the deepest fractures in American history: No, it is not worse than the 1850s-1860s or Gilded Age. Historians consistently caution against "more divided than ever" claims: As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison…”