Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

Broadly speaking, no, overall prices in stores are not lower than they were a year ago.

While the rate of inflation has slowed down significantly compared to the record peaks of a few years ago, prices are still rising. In economics, this is known as disinflation (prices rising at a slower pace) rather than deflation (prices actually falling).

The price landscape compared to late 2025 illustrates several key trends:

1. Overall Consumer Prices are Still Rising

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year-over-year. This means that, on average, a basket of goods and services costs 3.7% more than it did at the same time last year.

2. Grocery Store Prices (Food-at-Home)

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), grocery prices (food-at-home) are up about 1.8% to 2.7% compared to a year ago.

3. Selective Retailer Price Cuts

Because consumers have grown increasingly fatigued by years of high prices, major retail chains—including Walmart, Target, and Aldi—have selectively slashed prices on hundreds of everyday items (such as milk, bread, and paper products) to win back budget-conscious shoppers.
While you may notice cheaper price tags on specific, highly visible promotional items at these stores, these are targeted corporate discounts rather than a broad, economy-wide drop in retail prices.

Why Doesn't it Feel Like Prices are Improving?

Economists often refer to a phenomenon called "rockets and feathers"—prices shoot up like a rocket when wholesale costs rise, but float down as slowly as a feather when those costs retreat. Because grocery and store prices rose cumulatively by roughly 30% between 2020 and 2025, even a minor 2% increase on top of that feels incredibly heavy for household budgets. Unless the economy enters a period of outright deflation (which is rare and generally considered economically dangerous), store prices are highly unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.