Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Is polarization worse now? I'll dig into historical data to compare today's divide with the past.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? It depends on what time period you compare it to.

Short answer: Worse than the last 50-70 years, but not worse than the worst periods in American history.

1. Compared to recent decades - yes, measurably worse

Most quantitative measures show polarization is at a historic high for the modern era:

A related measure is affective polarization - not just disagreeing on policy (ideological polarization) but disliking and distrusting the other side. Research notes "the gap between Americans' positive feelings toward their own political party and their negative feelings toward the opposing party increased markedly over the past two decades."

2. Compared to all of American history - no

Historians consistently argue that the current period, while deeply divided, does not approach the mid-19th century:

> "It has become common to say that the United States in 2020 is more divided politically and culturally than at any other point in our national past. As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century."

Other highly polarized periods often cited include:

By contrast, "The 1950s and 1960s were marked by high levels of political bipartisanship, the results of a post-World War II 'consensus' in American politics", which makes the current return to polarization feel more dramatic by comparison to that unusually consensual era.

3. Important nuance

Scholars distinguish between elite polarization (elected officials, activists, media) and mass polarization (general public).

Political scientist Morris Fiorina argues there is "little evidence that Americans' ideological or policy positions are more polarized today than they were two or three decades ago, although their choices often seem to be. The explanation is that the political figures Americans evaluate are more polarized. A polarized political class makes the citizenry appear polarized, but it is largely that—an appearance."

Other research finds polarization is "primarily a phenomenon among Americans who are deeply involved in politics and very expressive about their political views. Americans who are not as involved in politics are not as polarized."

There is also the phenomenon of false polarization - people overestimate how extreme the other side is, which drives affective dislike beyond actual policy differences - and belief consolidation, where Americans who once held a mix of liberal and conservative views on different issues now increasingly sort into two consistent worldview clusters.

> Bottom line: If your benchmark is living memory - the last 50 years - yes, the U.S. is more ideologically and especially affectively polarized than at any point since polling began, with Congress more divided than since Reconstruction and public hostility at record highs. If your benchmark is the entire span of U.S. history, historians say no - the 1850s-1860s and other periods of open political violence were worse.