Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average—though the picture is mixed by category and item, inflation has cooled significantly from recent peaks, and many retailers have cut prices on thousands of products amid competition and softer demand.[1]

Overall Inflation (US CPI Context)

•The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been running roughly 2.5–3.7% year-over-year in recent months (e.g., ~3.7% in September 2026 and ~3.1% in November 2026). This means the broad basket of consumer prices is higher than a year prior.[2]

•Core CPI (excluding food and energy) has been in the mid-2% to low-3% range. Shelter/housing costs remain a key driver of the remaining inflation.[3]

•Energy has been volatile (sometimes contributing to higher headline numbers, sometimes lower, as with recent gasoline declines).

Prices are rising more slowly than during the high-inflation period of 2021–2023, but they have not broadly fallen below year-ago levels.

Store/Retail and Goods Prices

•Goods prices (the physical items you buy in stores) have shown much milder increases or occasional declines compared to services. Core goods (commodities less food and energy) rose only about 0.7% year-over-year as of September 2026. Used cars/trucks have often been lower.[4]

•In 2024, goods prices saw periods of mild deflation (e.g., down nearly 1% in some months), helped by retailers cutting prices.[5]

•Major chains (Walmart, Target, Aldi, and others) implemented thousands of permanent price cuts/rollbacks on essentials, groceries, household items, apparel, and more—especially in 2024 and continuing selectively—to attract value-conscious shoppers. This has helped keep some shelf prices stable or lower.[6]

Groceries / Food at Home

•Food-at-home (grocery) prices have typically been up ~1.5–2.5% year-over-year recently (e.g., ~1.8% as of September 2026), below overall CPI and well below the double-digit spikes of prior years.[7]

•Mixed by item (examples from BLS average prices and trackers around late 2026):

•Lower or much lower: Eggs (sharp drops after avian flu peaks, e.g., -30%+ in some comparisons), butter, some produce (bananas, potatoes), certain dairy, pork in earlier periods, salmon/fish in some snapshots.

•Higher: Ground beef and some meats, certain beverages, coffee in spots.

•Flat/stable: Many staples like milk or bread in specific periods; roughly half of tracked common items in one Walmart study held steady over a year.[8]

•An NPR basket of ~96 common Walmart items rose under 1% on average over 2024 (half unchanged, some down, some up), though the five-year view from pre-pandemic was much higher (~25%).[9]

•Shrinkflation (smaller packages at similar prices) has occurred in some categories but has had a limited overall impact on measured inflation.

Other Notes

•Discounts and competition: 2024 was described as a year of heavy discounting and more affordable assortments as consumers pulled back. This trend has helped offset some list-price pressure.[6]

•International variation: In the UK, discounters like Aldi reported that more than a third of products were cheaper than a year earlier (average prices down slightly), even as broader grocery inflation ran ~2.5%.[10]

•Perception vs. data: Many shoppers feel prices are still high because of the large cumulative increases since 2019–2021, and checkout totals reflect that elevated base. Some categories (e.g., certain meats or energy-related) can spike due to supply issues.

•Furniture and some durable goods have seen deflation in places.[11]

Bottom line: You are unlikely to find the average store basket cheaper than a year ago—broad measures show small increases—but many individual items are lower or unchanged, promotions are widespread, and real purchasing power for goods has stabilized more than for services/housing. Shop around (discounters, private labels, sales), compare unit prices, and check apps/flyers for the best deals, as competition continues to pressure retailers. Data comes primarily from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), retailer announcements, and shopping trackers; figures update monthly and vary by location and exact timing.

Citations (11)

1bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/consumer-price-index-2024-in-review.htm
Backs: “No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average—though the picture is mixed by category and item, inflation has cooled significantly from recent peaks, and many retailers have cut prices on thousands of products amid competition and softer demand.”
2bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm
Backs: “This means the broad basket of consumer prices is higher than a year prior.”
3inflationtheguide.comLow provenance
https://inflationtheguide.com/news/us-core-cpi-november-2026
Backs: “Shelter/housing costs remain a key driver of the remaining inflation.”
4bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
Backs: “Core goods (commodities less food and energy) rose only about 0.7% year-over-year as of September 2026. Used cars/trucks have often been lower.”
5investopedia.comCommercial contentquality 0.93
https://www.investopedia.com/shoppers-could-be-seeing-lower-prices-this-holiday-season-8729096
Backs: “In 2024, goods prices saw periods of mild deflation (e.g., down nearly 1% in some months), helped by retailers cutting prices.”
6retailbrew.comNews and media
https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2024/12/18/2024-was-the-year-of-discounts-price-cuts-and-more-affordable-assortments
Backs: “Major chains (Walmart, Target, Aldi, and others) implemented thousands of permanent price cuts/rollbacks on essentials, groceries, household items, apparel, and more—especially in 2024 and continuing selectively—to attract value-conscious shoppers. This has helped keep some shelf prices stable or lower.”
7usda.govGovernment
http://www-tx.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings
Backs: “Food-at-home (grocery) prices have typically been up ~1.5–2.5% year-over-year recently (e.g., ~1.8% as of September 2026), below overall CPI and well below the double-digit spikes of prior years.”
8npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “Many staples like milk or bread in specific periods; roughly half of tracked common items in one Walmart study held steady over a year.”
9npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://text.npr.org/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “An NPR basket of ~96 common Walmart items rose under 1% on average over 2024 (half unchanged, some down, some up), though the five-year view from pre-pandemic was much higher (~25%).”
10thegrocer.co.ukNot yet classified
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/more-than-a-third-of-aldi-products-cheaper-than-a-year-ago/725462.article
Backs: “In the UK, discounters like Aldi reported that more than a third of products were cheaper than a year earlier (average prices down slightly), even as broader grocery inflation ran ~2.5%.”
11thefurnishingreport.comNot yet classified
http://www.thefurnishingreport.com/index.php/news/data-research/2591-furniture-retail-price-deflation-widens-to-16-year-low
Backs: “Furniture and some durable goods have seen deflation in places.”