Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
[1][2][3]Yes, by multiple standard measures, political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been for much of the recent past (especially the mid-to-late 20th century), though it is not unprecedented in U.S. history and falls well short of extremes like the Civil War era.[1]
Polarization has several dimensions—elite/congressional (voting and ideology of politicians), mass ideological (public issue positions and consistency), and affective (emotional dislike or hostility toward the other side)—and trends vary somewhat by measure and time frame. Most data focus on the U.S. two-party system.
Elite and Congressional Polarization
Congressional polarization is at or near historic highs for the modern era. Using DW-NOMINATE scores (based on roll-call votes, comparable over time), Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years. There has been essentially no ideological overlap between the parties in the House since around 2002 and in the Senate since 2004 (previously, many moderates crossed party lines).[1]
Mass Ideological Polarization (Public Attitudes)
Public issue positions show rising divergence, particularly since the late 2000s. A 2026 University of Cambridge study analyzing American National Election Studies data (1988–2024) via clustering algorithms found that divisions on social and political issues rose ~64% since 1988, with nearly all the increase after 2008 (around the financial crisis, Obama’s election, and smartphone/social media expansion). It may have begun leveling off more recently but remains elevated.[2]
Other analyses confirm increases over recent decades on many (but not all) topics, with both parties moving from the center in some measures.
Affective Polarization (Partisan Hostility)
This has risen markedly and is often described as a key driver of dysfunction. Americans’ feelings toward the opposing party have grown much more negative:
Historical Context and Caveats
In short, polarization—particularly partisan sorting, elite divergence, and mutual dislike—is substantially worse than during the relatively bipartisan mid-20th century and has intensified notably since the 1990s/2000s. It contributes to gridlock, eroded norms, and heightened tensions, though America has navigated high-polarization periods before without civil war. Trends can shift with events, leadership, institutions, and public attitudes. Data continue to evolve, and perceptions often exceed measured gaps.
Citations (7)
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
- https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1114750
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/feature/political-polarization-1994-2017/
Backs: “Democrats have grown more liberal in self-identification; Republicans more conservative.”
- https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/cross-polar.pdf
Backs: “Feeling thermometer ratings (warmth toward in-party vs. out-party) show growing gaps; the U.S. has experienced one of the largest increases among OECD countries over recent decades.”
- https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/politics/trump-divided-america-civil-war/index.html
Backs: “Some call it the worst “since the Civil War” in intensity of partisan feeling or perceived threat, but it is not equivalent.”
- https://www-s4.npr.org/2026/11/02/nx-s1-6003534/us-political-polarization-research-trump
Backs: “Media, social media, geographic sorting, and elite cues contribute.”