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GPT-5Nov 4, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07
Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Short answer: Compared with most of the 20th century, yes—polarization in the United States is substantially higher today. Compared with the mid‑19th century (the run‑up to the Civil War), no—today’s conflict is less violent and not as system‑shattering.
Why the answer depends on what you measure
•Elite (Congress) polarization: The ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans in roll‑call votes has climbed steadily since the late 1970s and is now at or near its highest level in the modern record (roughly since the late 19th/early 20th century).
•Public “affective” polarization: Since the late 1970s, partisans have grown much colder toward the other party and warmer toward their own. By survey metrics available since the 1970s, this affective gap is the largest on record.
•Public issue positions: On many specific policies, the public hasn’t moved to the extremes as much as elites have. Instead, people have “sorted” so that their party identity, ideology, and social identities now line up more consistently than they did in the mid‑20th century.
•Historical context: The U.S. experienced extreme polarization in the 1850s–1860s that culminated in secession and war; by that yardstick, today is not the worst. The unusually low polarization period was mid‑century (roughly the 1930s–1970s), when cross‑party coalitions were common.
What’s driving today’s levels
•Party realignment on race, religion, and region (especially the late‑20th‑century Southern realignment)
•Nationalized media and politics, cable news, and online platforms; elite cues and negative partisanship
•Geographic sorting and safer districts; primaries and donor ecosystems that reward ideologically consistent candidates
•Gerrymandering plays a role but is not the main driver on its own
Bottom line: As of 2026, U.S. polarization is higher than at any time in the late‑20th/early‑21st‑century baseline most people remember, especially among political elites and in how partisans feel about each other. It is not (yet) comparable to the sectional polarization that preceded the Civil War. If you had a different country or a specific metric in mind, tell me and I’ll tailor the answer.