What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?

I'll survey today's U.S. political climate to map the threats shaping it.

The threats of today's political climate in the United States in 2025-2026 are described by researchers and security analysts as converging and severe, ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.

1. Rising Political Violence and Threats to Public Officials

2025 saw a serious escalation in the risk environment, with:

•Incidents of targeted violence rose by at least 34 percent. According to START at the University of Maryland, there was a 34.5% increase in total terrorism and targeted violence events in the first eight months of 2025 vs. 2024.

•Threats against public officials spiked, with a 58 percent increase for members of Congress alone. The U.S. Capitol Police reported an increase in threat assessment cases against members of Congress for the third year in a row in 2025, with a 58 percent rise from 2024.

•According to researchers at the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology and Education Center, 2026 has already set a record for federal cases of threats to public officials and 2025, 2024, and 2023 also set new records.

•A New York Times investigation found over 2024-August 2026, threats targeting at least 70 U.S. senators, 185 members of the House of Representatives and 44 governors.

High-profile cases in this period included the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in May, the shooting of two Minnesota state lawmakers and their spouses in June resulting in the death of Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, the assassination of activist Charlie Kirk in September, and the fatal ambush targeting National Guard members in November, as well as the arson at Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's residence in April.

Research shows that election years are often linked to even greater risks of violence including attacks on politicians and intimidation at polling places. Political violence is a significant threat, with candidates facing increasing risk. Attacks targeting political figures have become increasingly common across the U.S. in recent years.

Threats and harassment have had a chilling effect: 75 percent of local elected officials are now less willing to engage in key political activities like working on controversial issues or running for higher office due to concerns about hostility. The U.S. Marshals Service documented more than 560 threats against judges in fiscal 2025, up 10 percent.

2. Intensifying Polarization and Affective Polarization

Experts identify rising political polarization in recent decades has been a major cause of the current erosion of U.S. democracy.

•Polarization has hardened around two overarching narratives that do not share a consensus on basic political norms and values.

•Pew Research Center polling in 2022 found 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats described the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans, up from 47% and 35% in 2016.

•As polarization has ratcheted up it has become a harshly corrosive dynamic, fueling congressional blockage and dysfunction, eroding public faith in the neutrality of the courts, pervading the media space, spurring gerrymandering.

The threat of violent unrest, as well as politically motivated violence, also persists ahead of the elections, fuelled by growing polarisation, declining trust in institutions, and the amplification of views and grievances in online echo chambers. As national debates intensify, three main dynamics are likely to drive unrest in 2026: the affordability crisis, tensions around federal operations, and intensifying political polarisation.

3. Democratic Backsliding and Erosion of Institutional Checks

Analysts describe the U.S. as a backsliding democracy whose democratic institutions are under severe stress and increasingly unable to meaningfully mediate political disputes, consistent with downgrades by Freedom House, V-Dem and others.

The Carnegie Endowment analysis describes the current phase as executive aggrandizement with three interlocking components:

•The assertion of presidential dominance over, and injection of partisanship into, all other parts of the executive branch

•The assertion of presidential dominance over the other two branches — seeking to sideline Congress and attacking courts that seek to check executive power

•A steady stream of efforts to tame, constrain, and punish nongovernmental institutions that question the president, such as media, law firms, civic groups and universities

The combination of polarization and executive aggrandizement has created political dysfunction and a weakening of democratic norms at a level of severity unprecedented in more than one hundred years.

Public perception reflects this: Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Americans view weakening democracy as a critical threat.

Effects on U.S. power are assessed along four dimensions: attractiveness, reliability, effectiveness, and focus. High levels of political polarization damage not only a country's democracy but also its power, making the country seen as less reliable by allies and untrustworthy as a negotiating partner.

4. Erosion of Trust and Government Gridlock

•In December 2025, 83% of Americans express little to no trust in the federal government and only 17% of Americans trust the government.

•Political polarization significantly influences the legislative process by creating gridlock in government institutions, and polarization can lead to legislative gridlock, as partisan divisions hinder cooperation.

•Studies consistently show declining public trust in government institutions, including Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court. This erosion is linked to partisan gridlock, political polarization.

•As divisions deepen, trust in institutions and processes may erode, leading to voter disengagement and apathy.

5. Tensions Around Federal Operations and Social Unrest

Federal immigration enforcement has emerged as a potential flashpoint for protest violence, with increased deployments to sanctuary cities like Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland despite opposition from local officials.

Updated analysis identified "24 incidents in which immigration agents shot at people since Trump's operations began ... and another 44 incidents in which agents held bystanders, protesters, or other people at gunpoint" with at least six people killed and another 13 injured. In early 2026, federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good in Minnesota.

Broader unrest is fueled by an affordability crisis: A Fox News poll in mid-November showed 76 percent of respondents view the economy negatively, up from 67% in July. Demonstrations surged to almost 20,000 in 2025, a 77 percent increase vs. 2024, including the October 18 "No Kings" protest estimated at seven million participants.

Partisan tensions have also been stoked by tit-for-tat redrawing of congressional maps in states like Texas and California to benefit their preferred party, and disputes over voter registration requirements, mail-in ballots and voting machines.

6. Election Integrity Threats: Misinformation, Disinformation and AI

Election integrity is under pressure globally from violence and misinformation and disinformation to electoral management malfunctions, cyberattacks.

For the U.S. midterms specifically:

•Cyber threats exacerbated by AI could impact elections.

•The 2026 midterm elections will be the first US federal election where AI systems are deeply integrated into how voters access information.

•A March 2026 survey found 85% of respondents believe that AI-generated content will spread false information about this year's midterm elections, while 26% identified misleading information as the most significant threat.

•One in three respondents (33.8%) have used AI for midterm campaign information and 53.0% of 18-to-24-year-olds say misinformation has made choosing their vote harder.

•Researchers warn that nearly 40% of election-related AI answers were incomplete, outdated or wrong, including logistical voting errors, candidate identity confusion, and recycling of Russian-backed propaganda.

7. Weakened Early Warning and Violence Prevention Infrastructure

At the moment risk is rising, the federal government has moved in the opposite direction, slashing resources for critical agencies, academic institutions, and interventions aimed at improving community safety and election security.

This includes cuts to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), DHS Center for Prevention Programs, and Office of Intelligence and Analysis, plus cancellations that forced the START T2V dataset — developed in response to the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act — to discontinue its data collection program when the administration cancelled its funding in early 2025.

Citations (3)

1justsecurity.orgNews and mediaquality 0.77
America Must Reinforce Early Warning Infrastructure
Backs: “The threats of today's political climate in the United States in 2025-2026 are described by researchers and security analysts as converging and severe, ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. 1. Rising Political Violence and Threats to Public Officials”
2carnegieendowment.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The Effects of U.S. Democratic Backsliding on U.S. Power
Backs: “Marshals Service documented more than 560 threats against judges in fiscal 2025, up 10 percent. 2. Intensifying Polarization and Affective Polarization. Experts identify rising political polarization in recent decades has been a major cause of the current erosion of U.S.”
3s-rminform.comCompanies
Trouble ahead: Rising political tensions foreshadow 2026 US midterm elections
Backs: “As polarization has ratcheted up it has become a harshly corrosive dynamic, fueling congressional blockage and dysfunction, eroding public faith in the neutrality of the courts, pervading the media space, spurring gerrymandering. The threat of violent unrest, as well as politically motivated violence, also persists…”