Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
No, prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average—though the picture is mixed by category, item, and retailer, with significant cooling in inflation and outright declines for many specific products.[1]
Overall Trends (Primarily U.S. Data)
Energy/gasoline has been volatile and a big contributor to swings (up sharply in some recent periods, then declining). Core inflation (ex-food and energy) has been in the mid-2% to low-3% range.[5]
Store-Level and Item-Specific Reality
Retailers (especially discounters and big-box stores) have been aggressive with price cuts, rollbacks, and promotions to win back price-sensitive shoppers after the high-inflation period of prior years:
Basket comparisons at specific stores (e.g., Walmart or Kroger equivalents in studies) have sometimes shown near-flat or very small changes YoY for food + household items.[11]
Why It Feels Different
Bottom line: Broad store/grocery prices are not lower on average than a year ago—they’re up modestly (low single digits for many relevant categories)—but the rapid increases of 2021–2023 have largely ended. Many individual items are cheaper or unchanged, and competitive pricing/discounts are widespread. Your personal experience will depend heavily on what you buy, where you shop (discounters help), and location. Check current BLS CPI data, average price series, or store apps/receipts for the latest item-level details, as figures update monthly.
Citations (12)
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/charts/cpi-cpi_rc_1cpibycat.stm
Backs: “No, prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average—though the picture is mixed by category, item, and retailer, with significant cooling in inflation and outright declines for many specific products.”
- https://vernumo.com/en/data/inflation
Backs: “This includes services, housing/shelter (a major driver), energy, and goods.”
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Backs: “Broader commodities rose more (around 4.6% YoY in September 2026, boosted by energy), but commodities less food and energy rose only about 0.7–1.1%. Durables were roughly flat (near 0%).”
- https://nowflation.com/series/CUSR0000SAF11
Backs: “Up about 1.8% YoY as of September 2026 (moderating from higher rates earlier). Food away from home (restaurants) rose faster, around 3.5%.”
- https://inflationtheguide.com/news/us-core-cpi-november-2026
Backs: “Core inflation (ex-food and energy) has been in the mid-2% to low-3% range.”
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2024/12/18/2024-was-the-year-of-discounts-price-cuts-and-more-affordable-assortments
Backs: “Goods prices showed periods of mild deflation or near-flatness.”
- https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “The five-year view (vs. pre-pandemic) was much more painful (~25% higher).”
- https://datenus.com/economy/prices
Backs: “Ground beef and some other proteins have been higher; coffee and certain categories also rose.”
- https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/more-than-a-third-of-aldi-products-cheaper-than-a-year-ago/725462.article
Backs: “Discounters like Aldi (data more prominently available for UK but reflective of strategy) reported over a third of products cheaper than a year earlier, with average prices down slightly (0.4–0.9% weighted), even as broader grocery inflation ran positive.”
- https://www.fooddive.com/news/food-prices/808312/
Backs: “Food manufacturers have also cut prices on many products to boost volume.”
- https://research1.ml.com/C/?q=Sbwcuk8jlFq5IXprt5GpHg
Backs: “Basket comparisons at specific stores (e.g., Walmart or Kroger equivalents in studies) have sometimes shown near-flat or very small changes YoY for food + household items.”
- https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/prices-would-have-fallen-without-tariffs-new-york-fed-study-finds
Backs: “Tariffs and other factors have influenced some goods prices in recent periods.”