Are ultra-processed foods a public health hazard?

Ultra-processed foods and health risks — I'll gather the latest evidence on whether they pose a public-health hazard.

Yes, the accumulating scientific consensus is that ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are a major public health hazard - described in 2025 in The Lancet as a leading cause of the "chronic disease pandemic".

1. What are ultra-processed foods?

The term comes from the NOVA food classification developed by Brazilian researcher Carlos Monteiro in 2009.

Nova puts all food into one of four groups: unprocessed or minimally processed foods; processed culinary ingredients; processed foods; and ultra-processed foods.

This system classifies foods into 4 major groups: unprocessed and minimally processed foods, processed culinary ingredients, processed foods, and ultra-processed foods (UPFs). The latter are defined as industrial formulations, typically made of food components that have been either modified or recombined, with little or no whole foods.

According to Monteiro and his Nova definition, an ultra-processed food is made from ingredients extracted from foods, such as oils, fats, sugar, starch and proteins, or else made from processed food fractions.

The NOVA system is the most applied in the scientific literature and it is accepted today by international organizations such as FAO or WHO.

Examples often cited by the British Heart Foundation include: preservatives, emulsifiers, sweeteners and artificial flavourings, while also tending to be high in salt, sugar and saturated fat, including ice cream, ham, sausages, crisps, mass-produced bread, breakfast cereals, biscuits, carbonated drinks, fruit-flavoured yogurts, instant soups.

2. What does the evidence show?

Large pooled and meta-analyses

•A pooled data analysis published in the open-access journal Family Medicine and Community Health found higher ultra-processed food intake is linked to a heightened risk of several major chronic health issues, such as digestive diseases, high blood pressure and metabolic syndrome/diabetes, as well as death Every additional 100 g (3.5 ounces) consumed was associated with correspondingly greater risks.

•A new meta-analysis of 51 prospective cohort studies involving more than 8 million people found that higher consumption of ultra-processed foods was associated with multiple chronic health risks. It analyzed research from the Americas, Europe, Asia and Oceania, including studies published as recently as April 2026.

The findings suggest that every additional 100 grams of UPFs consumed per day was associated with a 14% higher risk of cardiovascular events, 11% higher risk of high blood pressure, 4% higher cancer risk

Other reported associations in that analysis:

•People with the highest UPF consumption had a 24% higher risk of cardiovascular events

•Higher consumption was associated with a 24% greater risk of cardiovascular events, 12% higher cancer risk and 23% higher risk of overweight or obesity

The Lancet Series 2025

A landmark series of papers from the prestigious medical journal The Lancet has made the strong case that they’re linked to to a range of chronic health conditions, causing harm to nearly every organ system in the human body The study, which assessed more than 100 papers, suggests that dietary quality globally is being reduced by the prevalence of UPFs.

Specifically:

•The review, involving 43 leading global experts, examined 104 long-term studies and found that 92 showed higher risks of chronic disease or early death among people who consume diets high in UPFs

•Our systematic review of 104 studies found 92 showing an association between the ultra-processed dietary pattern and increased risk of one or more chronic disease outcomes. Meta-analyses of 15 outcomes found statistically significant associations with adverse health conditions for 12, including:

•Type 2 diabetes 25% increased risk

•Depression 23% increased risk

•Overweight or obesity 21% increased risk

•All-cause mortality 18% increased risk

•Cardiovascular disease or mortality 18% increased risk

•Strong evidence links UPF diets to obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease

•Large prospective studies conducted around the world have linked higher consumption of ultra-processed foods with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, stroke, heart failure and diabetes For example, one study involving more than 105,000 adults found that every 10 per cent increase ultra-processed food intake was associated with a 12 per cent higher risk of cardiovascular disease.

A 2024 review in The BMJ, covering 45 studies and nearly 10 million people, linked higher intake to greater risks including early death, heart disease and type 2 diabetes.

British Heart Foundation summaries also note: several studies have shown that eating higher amounts of ultra-processed foods is linked to a greater risk of high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, heart attacks and strokes, and early death.

3. Why are they considered hazardous beyond poor nutrition?

The Lancet papers emphasize: Harm linked to ultra-processed foods goes beyond nutrient content

Critics had argued UPFs' harms were just due to high fat, salt and sugar, but the series argues that there are other factors at play: low content of phytochemicals which protect health, as well as high energy density and disruption to food structures.

Other mechanisms cited:

•Multiple nutrient imbalances

•Overeating due to hyper-palatability - UPF diets were still linked to greater weight gain, as more calories had actually been consumed due to the diet’s hyper-palatability

•Soft textures do not require chewing so the digestive process is speeded up

•Even the healthier UPFs are less healthy than their more minimally processed counterpart

•Exposure to potentially harmful additives and additive mixtures

•Packaging chemicals in UPFs pose risks, including endocrine disruption which is linked to infertility. Packaging commonly used for UPFs often contain harmful chemicals such as phthalates, bisphenols, and perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).

4. A population-level, not just individual, hazard

The Lancet authors argue:

•The energy contribution of UPFs to diets has surged globally over recent decades From 2007 to 2022, total UPF sales increased in low-income and middle-income countries, but remained stable in high-income countries, where consumption is already entrenched.

•The ultra-processed dietary pattern has displaced, and continues to displace, long-established patterns based on the first three Nova groups

•Global UPF consumption is rising displacing traditional diets and reducing nutrient intake

Between 1962 and 2021, of the US$2·9 trillion in shareholder payouts by corporations operating across all food sectors, more than 50% was distributed by UPF manufacturers alone, giving them surplus resources for globally coordinated influence on policy makers and intensive marketing.

The series concludes: Taken together, these findings support the thesis that the ultra-processed dietary pattern is a major driver of the escalating global burden of diet-related chronic diseases. Public health policies and actions are justified.

Proposed public health responses include warning labels, taxes on certain UPFs, and restrictions on school environments, with emphasis that improving diets cannot rely on consumer behaviour change alone — it also requires policies that regulate UPF marketing and production.

5. Caveats and nuance

•The review was largely based on observational studies, so it cannot prove that ultra-processed foods directly cause disease. The available research fulfils most criteria used to determine causality, but the link is not conclusively proven, though its consistency across more than 100 studies is strong.

•Cardiovascular disease is multifactorial. Diet is one piece of a much larger puzzle that includes physical activity, sleep, genetics, age and other lifestyle factors. It’s difficult to isolate the exact contribution

•Not all processing is harmful. Some food processing is important because it helps preserve food, improves food safety and increases access to food. The concern is growing over-reliance. The goal isn’t to eliminate processed foods entirely. It’s to restore a better balance.

•Current regulations targeting foods high in fat, salt and sugar have been criticized because UPFs are being reformulated to remain under thresholds while core issues remain.

Bottom line: While definitive proof of causation from randomized trials is still limited, major medical journals, heart foundations and international experts now consistently classify high UPF consumption - and the growing dominance of UPF dietary patterns worldwide - as a significant and urgent public health hazard associated with obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, depression, cancer and premature death, warranting policy action similar to that for tobacco and other commercially driven health threats.

This information is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. If you are concerned about your diet, consult a healthcare professional or registered dietitian.

Citations (3)

1foodnavigator.comNews and mediaquality 0.68
Ultra-processed foods: 5 biggest implications from Lancet study
Backs: “Higher consumption was associated with a 24% greater risk of cardiovascular events, 12% higher cancer risk and 23% higher risk of overweight or obesity. The Lancet Series 2025. A landmark series of papers from the prestigious medical journal The Lancet has made the strong case that they’re linked to to a range of…”
2lancet.comNot yet classified
The Lancet Series on Ultra-Processed Foods and Human Health
Backs: “Our systematic review of 104 studies found 92 showing an association between the ultra-processed dietary pattern and increased risk of one or more chronic disease outcomes. Meta-analyses of 15 outcomes found statistically significant associations with adverse health conditions for 12, including:”
3uwo.caNot yet classified
Expert explainer: What ultra-processed foods mean for heart health
Backs: “Cardiovascular disease or mortality 18% increased risk. Strong evidence links UPF diets to obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Large prospective studies conducted around the world have linked higher consumption of ultra-processed foods with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, stroke,…”