What is the current state of US politics?
The Current State of US Politics (as of November 2, 2026)
The US is on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026 — just one day away. This election is widely framed as a referendum on President Trump's second term, two years into his return to the White House.
The Political Landscape
Trump's Approval Is Historically Low
According to data journalists at Silver Bulletin, 59.9% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 37.3% who approve, putting his net approval rating at -22.6%, near his all-time low. According to the New York Times, Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman — Bush's was higher at this point in 2006, a year Democrats flipped both chambers. One NBC poll found his disapproval rating hits a record high of 60%, with Democrats holding a 7-point lead ahead of Tuesday's elections.
Generic Ballot Favors Democrats
Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot — nearly 9 percentage points on average, a margin that has held steady over the last month. However, Democrats might not reprise 2018's 41-seat flip, partly because Republican lawmakers have redrawn congressional maps across the South to benefit their party, though Democrats only need to pick up three seats to win back the House.
What's at Stake
Elections will choose all 435 House members, a third of senators, and 36 governors. Flipping the House would give Democrats power to block Trump's agenda, investigate his administration, and even impeach him again; flipping the Senate would let them block his Supreme Court nominees too.
House: Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control, requiring wins in multiple states Trump won, some by double digits, in 2024.
Senate: Key battleground states include North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, with odds generally favoring Republicans retaining control since Democrats need to defend all their contested seats while flipping four GOP-held seats.
Dominant Issues
Cost of Living / Iran War Fallout: The economy is the top concern. The nearly seven-month-old Iran war became a political liability for vulnerable Republicans as Trump's approval fell to 32% in one Reuters/Ipsos poll, with diesel prices hitting record highs — a particular concern in agriculture-heavy states. An analysis found 61 of 65 campaign ads about the Iran war, examined between September 1 and October 14, 2026, focused on cost of living.
Election Integrity Disputes: Tensions are high over administration conduct. On October 22, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction barring DHS from conducting election-related field operations in nine states through Election Day, citing voter intimidation concerns. On October 26, Trump announced a $1 million reward on Truth Social for information on voter fraud just a week before the midterms. Election lawyers at the Brennan Center and Democracy Docket have described some administration actions as election subversion, while surveys of political scientists have found consensus the US is transitioning toward illiberal democracy.
Redistricting Wars: A coast-to-coast redistricting battle began when Texas Republicans redrew their map in 2025; California Democrats responded, Florida enacted a GOP-favoring map, Virginia voters narrowly approved a Democratic remap facing court challenges, and the April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Key Races to Watch
Other Notable Developments
Bottom line: the US enters Election Day with Democrats favored to retake the House, a more uncertain Senate picture, a historically unpopular president, and deep controversy over the fairness and conduct of the election itself.
Citations (23)
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “According to the data journalists at Silver Bulletin, 59.9% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 37.3% ...”
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “According to the New York Times, Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman. George W....”
- NBC News - Breaking Headlines and Video Reports on World, U.S. and Local Angles | NBC News
Source excerpt: “Trump’s disapproval rating hits a record high of 60% in a new national NBC News poll, and Democrats have a 7-point lead ahead of Tuesday’s elections. ”
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “Right now, Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot — nearly 9 percentage points, on average. And that margin has held steady over the l...”
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “Democrats might not reprise 2018 and flip 41 House seats again in November, in part because red-state Republican lawmakers have recently redrawn congr...”
- Politics News: Political parties, election news, policies, and news from the Trump administration from CBS News
Source excerpt: “With elections to choose all 435 House members, a third of our Senators, and 36 governors, "Sunday Morning" looks at why – with rising costs...”
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president's agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him (again); flippi...”
- Midterms 2026: Congress Polls and More
Source excerpt: “Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control. To get to a majority, Democrats must win in multiple states that Trump won, some by double dig...”
- 2026 U.S. midterm elections | Key Races, Historic Precedents, States to Watch, Gerrymandering, & Integrity | Britannica
Source excerpt: “Key states in the 2026 midterm elections include North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. Those states have pivotal races th...”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “Thus, the nearly seven-month-old war in Iran became a political liability for some vulnerable Republican candidates ahead of the November midterms. ”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “The shift came as Trump's approval rating fell to 32%, a career low, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, with Americans souring on both his handling of...”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “An analysis of political advertising related to the Iran war found that 61 of the 65 ads examined between September 1 and October 14, 2026, focused on...”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “On October 22, 2026, Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín of the Northern District of California issued preliminary injunction that bars the Department of Ho...”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “On October 26, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a $1 million reward for information on voter fraud in past elections or the 2026 midterms, to be...”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “Election lawyers at the Brennan Center for Justice and Democracy Docket have described the administration's actions as election subversion, while surv...”
- US Politics News | Latest News - NewsNow
Source excerpt: “A coast-to-coast redistricting battle began when Texas Republicans redrew their congressional map in 2025.California Democrats responded, Florida enac...”
- 2026 elections live updates: Michigan Democratic rift spills into public view and more in midterm final push
Source excerpt: “9:03 AM / November 1, 2026 · Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic nominee Charles Booker in the Kentucky Senate race on Sunday, two days ...”
- 2026 elections live updates: Michigan Democratic rift spills into public view and more in midterm final push
Source excerpt: “He is running against Republican Rep. Andy Barr to succeed Senator Mitch McConnell. ”
- 2026 elections live updates: Michigan Democratic rift spills into public view and more in midterm final push
Source excerpt: “Updated 6:20 PM / November 1, 2026 · Adam Hamilton, the pastor of the nation's largest United Methodist church, posted the video on social media ahead...”
- Politics News: Political parties, election news, policies, and news from the Trump administration from CBS News
Source excerpt: “... Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut was hospitalized on Saturday after experiencing a stroke, his office said. ”
- 2026 elections live updates: Michigan Democratic rift spills into public view and more in midterm final push
Source excerpt: “Nearly 50 million people have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections, according to data collected by the University of Florida's Election Lab. ”
- 2026 elections live updates: Michigan Democratic rift spills into public view and more in midterm final push
Source excerpt: “In total, 49,564,545 people had voted early as of Friday evening. ”
- 2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Source excerpt: “In September 2026, Trump barred CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House grounds.”