Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
No, overall prices in stores are not lower than a year ago—they are modestly higher on average, though the picture is mixed by category, with some items cheaper, heavy promotions/discounts common, and energy costs much higher.
According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026:
Category Breakdown (YoY changes, September 2026)
Grocery inflation has cooled significantly from pandemic peaks (food-at-home is far below the double-digit rates of 2022), and the rate is near or below longer-term averages in recent months. However, cumulative prices remain substantially higher than pre-2020/2021 levels (e.g., groceries up roughly 30%+ since early 2020).[5]
Retailer Actions and Shopper Experience
Major retailers have been aggressively cutting prices and running promotions amid softer consumer demand and competition:
Shoppers may notice lower prices or better deals on specific items, more frequent sales, or smaller package sizes (shrinkflation has been a factor in past years but with limited overall CPI impact). Unit prices or effective costs after discounts can feel lower in places, and some NPR-style basket tracking in prior years showed many items stable or down. However, the official indexes confirm that the average basket costs more than a year earlier.[8]
In short: Broad store/goods prices have risen slightly to moderately (not fallen) over the past year per official data, driven by a mix of categories, while energy has surged. Retailers’ price cuts and promotions provide relief on many items, so individual experiences vary by what you buy, where you shop, and use of deals. For the most current local prices, check store apps or receipts, as national averages mask variation. Data is primarily U.S.-focused from BLS/USDA.
Citations (8)
- https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Backs: “The all-items CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year.”
- https://www.grocerytradenews.com/us-grocery-inflation-september-2026/
Backs: “Food at home (groceries/supermarket prices) rose 1.8% YoY (after a slight -0.1% monthly decline). Food overall (including restaurants) was up 2.5%.”
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/charts/cpi-cpi_rc_1cpibycat.stm
Backs: “Commodities less food and energy commodities (a broad measure of core goods prices relevant to many store purchases) rose 0.7% YoY.”
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Backs: “Broader commodities were up more (around 4.6% YoY), heavily influenced by energy.”
- https://americandefault.org/statistics/grocery-price-increase-since-2020/
Backs: “However, cumulative prices remain substantially higher than pre-2020/2021 levels (e.g., groceries up roughly 30%+ since early 2020).”
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/target-cuts-prices-consumer-sentiment-sours/831627/
Backs: “Target has cut prices on thousands of items (including ~2,000 more recently in home/apparel, part of 10,000+ over the past year), with some apparel and home goods notably lower YoY.”
- https://www.foodworldnews.com/articles/81769/20261027/kroger-price-cuts-new-stores-store-closures.htm
Backs: “Kroger is investing billions to lower everyday prices on thousands of items and simplify promotions.”
- https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “However, the official indexes confirm that the average basket costs more than a year earlier.”