Is polarization really worse than ever? I'll pull the latest research comparing today's divides to past eras.
Yes, by most measurable modern standards — but not by the standards of all of American history.
The answer depends on what kind of polarization you mean and what time period you are comparing to.
1. By measures from the last 50 years, polarization is at a historic high
Scholars distinguish between two types:
•Ideological polarization — differences between policy positions
•Affective polarization — dislike and distrust of political out-groups
Both are apparent in the US, and the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in both than comparable democracies.
Data show a clear long-term increase:
•Affective polarisation — how much partisans dislike and distrust the opposing party — is at historically high levels in the US and rising in many other democracies.
•Pew Research Center analysis found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.
•Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases in polarization during the 2000s onwards.
•A Cambridge study tracking opinions from 1988 to Trump's second term found divisions increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all coming after 2008, after polarization almost flatlined during the 1990s and noughties.
Pew's long-running surveys illustrate the trend:
•In 1994, only 17 percent of Republicans had a "very unfavourable view" of the Democratic Party, while 16 percent of Democrats had a "very unfavourable view" of the Republican Party. By 2017, these figures had risen to 45 and 44 percent respectively.
•By 2016 those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats, and by 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views.
•According to the Pew Research Center, members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014, while those who have very unfavorable opinions are at record highs as of 2022.
On ideology:
•The overall share of Americans who express consistently conservative or consistently liberal opinions has doubled over the past two decades from 10% to 21%. Pew's 2014 study similarly noted the overall share doubled from 10% to 21%.
•Today, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat, and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican. In 1994 the median Republican was to the right of 64% of Democrats; by 2017 the median Republican was to the right of 97%.
•Pew directly stated: Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in the last two decades.
On affect, measured with the 0-100 feeling thermometer:
•Affective polarization equaled 15.69 in 1976. By 2024, it had reached 49.61.
•In-party warmth sits almost exactly where it stood forty-six years ago (70.7 to 70.1), while out-party warmth fell from 48.0 to 20.6 — the gap roughly doubled not because people came to like their own side more, but because they came to dislike the other side far more.
•Studies point to a substantial increase over time in levels of affective polarization in the United States, unparalleled in other democracies.
Institutionally:
•In the 117th Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans. For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier.
•77% of Americans agreeing that the country is more divided than ever, according to Pew Research.
Much of this elite polarization is asymmetric, as it has primarily been driven by a rightward shift among Republicans in Congress.
2. By the standards of the entire sweep of American history, no
Historians consistently argue today's divisions, while intense, do not approach the mid-19th century:
•As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.
•According to American political history expert Randall Miller, "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War", when representatives carried weapons into Congress.
Between Lincoln's election in November 1860 and Lee's surrender in April 1865, the nation literally broke apart, with more than 3 million men taking up arms and at least 620,000 military deaths — equivalent to about 6.5 million in 2020. No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness.
Other highly polarized eras are also cited:
•The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870 – 1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history, with open political violence and highly polarized political discourse.
•It has become common to say the US is more divided than ever, but there have been many periods when things were worse — "there's no need to go all the way back to the Civil War. Just look at the 1960s and 1970s", a period marked by political assassinations, riots and sustained political violence.
3. Why the perception feels like "worse than ever"
•Elite vs. mass: Some scholars argue the public is not as polarized as elites, and mass polarization is often wrongly imputed from elite polarization. Other research finds Americans are less ideologically polarized than they think, and there is "significant ideological overlap and agreement on policies" — but they are very emotionally polarized.
•Affect, not ideology: The rise is primarily driven by out-party hate, not in-party love, and is better explained by social identity than issue disagreement.
•Sorting: Rather than just moving further apart on old issues, Americans have increasingly sorted into two comprehensive worldview clusters — what sociologist Daniel DellaPosta called "belief consolidation" or "pluralistic collapse".
In short: If you mean the last 60-70 years of survey data, yes — affective dislike, ideological sorting, and legislative gridlock are at modern record highs and the US is polarizing faster than other democracies. If you mean "ever in American history," historians say no — the Civil War era and periods of open political violence remain far more divided.