What is the current state of US politics?
The State of US Politics: Three Days from the 2026 Midterms
With Election Day just three days away (Tuesday, Nov. 3), American politics is consumed by the midterm elections, which will decide control of the entire House, 35 Senate seats, and over 30 governorships.
The National Picture
Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the president and his party — in this case, President Donald Trump, two years into his return to Washington, with much of the national spotlight on the fight for Congress. Republicans currently control government with razor-thin margins: Republicans have a larger majority in the U.S. Senate, currently holding 53 seats to 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. In the House, Democrats need only a small net gain to flip control.
Trump's approval is historically weak. Just 38% of registered voters approved of the job President Trump is doing, with 61% disapproving, and an equal share of registered and likely voters said they "strongly disapprove" — tied with last month as the highest ever in the poll. Trump's favorability is even lower — just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him, while 59% have a negative one.
Polling favors Democrats heavily. According to RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, 51.4% to 43.2%. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found similarly strong numbers: a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests Democrats are ahead by nine points, with 47% supporting Democrats versus 36% for Republicans; when undecided voters' leanings were factored in, Democrats led 50% to 41%. Election forecaster Nate Silver's model concurs: Democrats remain overwhelming favorites to retake the House and are also clearly favored in the Senate, especially given their excellent state-level polls over the past couple days.
Key Issues Driving Voters
Data from the October Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey, conducted October 22-26, reveals that roughly a week out from the midterms, Americans continue to identify the economy as the top issue facing the nation. Immigration and foreign policy (notably the Iran war) are also prominent. Deeply unpopular immigration crackdowns, particularly in Minnesota, as well as Trump's tariff policies have shifted public opinion, with a February 2026 Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll finding 58% of Americans opposed to his handling of immigration and 57% feeling the same about the economy.
Battleground Races to Watch
Several marquee contests are drawing national attention:
Record Early Voting
Turnout enthusiasm is notably high: more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day — nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases in states with competitive Senate races.
Structural Backdrop
This cycle follows a chaotic redistricting fight: in 2025 Trump endorsed a plan to redraw Texas's maps favorably for Republicans, which set off a tit-for-tat with California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposing a ballot initiative to redraw California's maps to favor Democrats — approved by voters in a November 2025 special election with 64% of the vote. Historically, this doesn't bode well for the GOP: Republicans were facing an uphill battle from the outset, since the party in charge of the White House loses an average of roughly 25 seats in the House in midterm elections since 1946.
What's at Stake
The outcome carries enormous consequences for Trump's remaining term: flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president's agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him again; flipping the Senate would allow them to stymie his Supreme Court nominees too. Looking ahead, with the House predicted to move to Democratic control, Republicans would lose the power trifecta they've enjoyed since Trump began his second term, potentially making Trump a "lame duck" for his final two years.
Beyond the midterms, there's already early positioning for 2028, with many Republicans keeping close eyes on Vice President JD Vance, widely considered the top Republican contender if he chooses to run.
Citations (24)
- Midterms 2026: Congress Polls and More
Source excerpt: “Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the president and his party — in this case, President Donald Trump, two years into his return to W...”
- 6 political stories to watch in 2026, from midterms to maps - ABC News
Source excerpt: “... Republicans have a larger majority in the U.S. Senate, currently holding 53 seats to 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. ”
- New poll shows Democrats have midterm edge, with caution signs : NPR
Source excerpt: “In this survey, just 38% of registered voters approved of the job President Trump is doing, with 61% disapproving (-23). ”
- New poll shows Democrats have midterm edge, with caution signs : NPR
Source excerpt: “That said, an equal share — 53% — of registered and likely voters said they "strongly disapprove" of the job Trump is doing, tied with last month as t...”
- New poll shows Democrats have midterm edge, with caution signs : NPR
Source excerpt: “... Trump's favorability rating is even lower — just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 59% have a negative one.”
- US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “According to RealClearPolling’s latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats still lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points. Democrats lea...”
- US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “With less than a week to go before the midterms, a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests the Democrats are ahead of the Republicans by nine points. According to...”
- 2026 Midterm Election Forecast: Senate & House | Silver Bulletin
Source excerpt: “Democrats remain overwhelming favorites to retake the House and are also clearly favored in the Senate, especially given their excellent state-level p...”
- A last-minute study guide to understand the 2026 midterms | Ipsos
Source excerpt: “Data from the October Reuters/Ipsos ... a week out of the <strong>2026</strong> <strong>midterm</strong> <strong>elections</strong>, Americans continu...”
- A last-minute study guide to understand the 2026 midterms | Ipsos
Source excerpt: “Data from the October Reuters/Ipsos Core Political conducted October 22-26 reveals that, roughly a week out of the 2026 midterm elections, Americans c...”
- 2026 U.S. midterm elections | Key Races, Historic Precedents, States to Watch, Gerrymandering, & Integrity | Britannica
Source excerpt: “But the deeply unpopular immigration crackdowns across the country, particularly in Minnesota, as well as Trump’s tariff policies, some of which were ...”
- US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are also competing in a closely contested Senate race. ”
- 2026 elections live updates: Trump takes part in online rallies as candidates make their final push
Source excerpt: “CBS News has confirmed that Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed's campaign has asked his former primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens, to st...”
- US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “Republican Senator Jon Husted, who took over Vance’s seat when he became vice president, is facing Brown, who is seeking a return to the Senate after ...”
- US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “Trump has made several trips to the state ahead of the midterms, but the polls indicate a much tighter race than the president has suggested. ”
- US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “US President Donald Trump reacts during a midterm campaign rally at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach [Evan Vucci/Reuters] Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican...”
- 2026 elections live updates: Trump takes part in online rallies as candidates make their final push
Source excerpt: “The DOJ pushed to segregate some Alaska Senate ballots, pending a probe into how a man with nearly the same name as GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan ended up on ...”
- 2026 Midterms: Latest News, Updates and Results of the Midterm Elections | NBC News
Source excerpt: “DOJ requests separating Alaska ballots that rank Dan J. Sullivan in Senate race · Appeals court again rejects DOJ’s bid to segregate alleged noncitize...”
- US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera
Source excerpt: “· According to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five...”
- 2026 U.S. midterm elections | Key Races, Historic Precedents, States to Watch, Gerrymandering, & Integrity | Britannica
Source excerpt: “• And now the math: Normally, elections held in the middle of a census cycle—such as the 2026 election—would not be subject to such redistricting, but...”
- A last-minute study guide to understand the 2026 midterms | Ipsos
Source excerpt: “Republicans were facing an uphill battle from the outset. Since 1946, the party in charge of the White House loses an average of roughly 25 seats in t...”
- The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.
Source excerpt: “Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president's agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him (again); flippi...”
- US politics in 2026: Trump abroad, America turns 250 and the midterm elections | LSE United States Politics and Policy
Source excerpt: “With the US House predicted to move to Democratic control, the Republicans will lose the power trifecta they have enjoyed since Donald Trump began his...”
- 6 political stories to watch in 2026, from midterms to maps - ABC News
Source excerpt: “On the Republican side, there has been less open jockeying by presidential hopefuls ahead of 2028 -- but many are keeping close eyes on Vice President...”