Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Yes — most economic evidence, including a large amount of recent real-world data, indicates that sharply restricting immigration tends to produce labor shortages, particularly in specific sectors, though the effects aren't uniform across the whole economy.
Why this happens
Immigrants are heavily concentrated in certain occupations that native-born workers are often reluctant to fill. In the U.S., immigrant workers account for 43 percent of farm workers, 30 percent of food production and processing workers, 28 percent of construction workers, 22 percent of workers in personal services, and 20 percent of workers in the leisure and hospitality sector. Many of these roles are filled by undocumented workers specifically because limits on the H2A temporary visa program for farm workers and the lack of interest by U.S.-born workers leave gaps that need filling.
When that supply of workers suddenly shrinks, economists expect — and have observed — a disruption in the availability of undocumented migrant workers will tend to raise costs and create supply shortages.
Real-world evidence from 2025–2026 (U.S.)
The second Trump administration's immigration crackdown provides a live case study. Economists broadly agree the effect has been negative for labor supply:
Does it just push up wages for native workers instead?
This is the central counterargument from immigration restriction advocates — that fewer immigrants means more opportunities and higher pay for native workers. The evidence so far mostly doesn't support this:
Economists say the disconnect reflects a structural mismatch: In many labor-intensive roles that rely heavily on immigrants, employers can't easily replace them with American workers. A small-business owner trying to raise wages to attract native workers found it didn't solve the shortage, noting she's skeptical higher wages can fix the problem because immigrants are often the only ones willing to take temporary positions, in her experience.
Instead of simply boosting employment for native workers, the shortage has tended to show up as higher prices and slower output. In construction, for instance, the construction industry, which already suffers from labor shortages, is at risk of wage inflation... Average wage growth in July approached 8% in the construction industry, nearly double the national average — wage growth concentrated in a shrinking workforce rather than broad new hiring.
Historical precedent
This isn't unique to 2025. During the COVID-era immigration pause, the number of working-age foreign-born people in the United States was still somewhat smaller than it was in early 2019, and relative to the pre-pandemic trend, there was a shortfall of about 2 million people, and sectors that are especially reliant on immigrant workers had significantly higher rates of unfilled jobs in 2021.
The nuance
Bottom line: Stopping or sharply curtailing immigration doesn't tend to simply "free up" jobs for native workers in a one-to-one way. Instead, the weight of recent evidence — both historical and from the 2025–2026 U.S. experience — shows it creates real, measurable labor shortages concentrated in specific sectors (agriculture, construction, hospitality, caregiving), which tend to show up as higher prices, slower output, and project delays rather than significant gains in native employment.
Citations (18)
- How Tighter Curbs on Immigration Impact the U.S. Economy | Econofact
Source excerpt: “Immigrant workers account for 43 percent of farm workers, 30 percent of food production and processing workers, 28 percent of construction workers, 22...”
- How Tighter Curbs on Immigration Impact the U.S. Economy | Econofact
Source excerpt: “A substantial portion of these jobs are filled by undocumented workers — for example, 42 percent of crop workers are undocumented because of limits on...”
- How Tighter Curbs on Immigration Impact the U.S. Economy | Econofact
Source excerpt: “A disruption in the availability of undocumented migrant workers will tend to raise costs and create supply shortages. ”
- Trump immigration policy may be shrinking labor force, economists say
Source excerpt: “The downward shift in the immigrant labor force in recent months is "definitive," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. "There's no debate what...”
- Trump immigration policy may be shrinking labor force, economists say
Source excerpt: “For example, job growth among industries that rely more heavily on undocumented immigrants has been "significantly weaker" than in the rest of the pri...”
- Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
Source excerpt: “In construction and extraction occupations, the foreign-born share of employment rose from about 22% in 2003 to almost 36% in 2024, according to data ...”
- Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
Source excerpt: “Ed Brady, chief executive of the Home Builders Institute, said the Trump administration’s crackdown has made labor shortages more acute in residential...”
- Immigration Enforcement and the US Agricultural Sector in 2025 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
Source excerpt: “Timothy J. Richards provides evidence of chronic farm labor shortages in California and estimates that if all unauthorized immigrants were removed fro...”
- Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
Source excerpt: “... may have been negative in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, according to estimates from researchers at the center-right American Enter...”
- Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
Source excerpt: “Economists say the disconnect reflects a structural mismatch: In many labor-intensive roles that rely heavily on immigrants, employers can’t easily re...”
- Immigration Crackdown Fails to Deliver Jobs for US-Born Workers
Source excerpt: “But she’s skeptical higher wages can fix the problem because immigrants are often the only ones willing to take temporary positions, in her experience...”
- Trump immigration policy may be shrinking labor force, economists say
Source excerpt: “The construction industry, which already suffers from labor shortages, is at risk of wage inflation, for example, according to a Bank of America Insti...”
- Labor Shortages and the Immigration Shortfall | Econofact
Source excerpt: “As of the end of 2021, the number of working-age foreign-born people in the United States is still somewhat smaller than it was in early 2019. and, re...”
- Labor Shortages and the Immigration Shortfall | Econofact
Source excerpt: “Sectors that are especially reliant on immigrant workers had significantly higher rates of unfilled jobs in 2021. ”
- How Does Immigration Affect the U.S. Economy? | Council on Foreign Relations
Source excerpt: “Some researchers, such as Harvard University’s George Borjas, have raised concerns about its negative impact on the low-skilled labor pool. Others, su...”
- Immigration Enforcement and the US Agricultural Sector in 2025 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
Source excerpt: “Reducing the availability of immigrants for agricultural work will increase labor costs and eventually lead to new technological innovations that impr...”
- Immigration Enforcement and the US Agricultural Sector in 2025 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
Source excerpt: “However, in the short term, higher production costs for fresh fruits, vegetables, and other commodities will lead to reduced domestic production, high...”
- Immigrants Make the Labor Market Great - Center for American Progress
Source excerpt: “Immigration is the driving force behind America’s labor supply growth, accounting for about half of labor force growth each year for the past three de...”