Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Voter fraud is a disputed topic — I'll pull the latest data and research on how often it actually occurs in the US.

Is voter fraud a problem in the US depends on definition - as an isolated crime it does occur, as a systemic issue that regularly changes election outcomes, credible research says no.

What the data shows

The consensus from credible research and investigation is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare, and the incidence of certain types of fraud – such as impersonating another voter – is virtually nonexistent.

Major reviews find exceptionally low rates:

•A Brennan Center review of elections that had been meticulously studied found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report found it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls".

•Researcher Justin Levitt identified 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast over that period.

•A Brennan Center survey of election officials overseeing 23.5 million votes in the 2016 general election found only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting for further investigation - a rate of 0.0001 percent among those jurisdictions.

Other analyses using different methods reach similar conclusions:

•Brookings’ review of Heritage Foundation data found, for example, that in Arizona across 36 elections and 42.6 million ballots there were 36 documented cases—about 0.0000845% of ballots—and that no federal outcome was changed.

•A 20-year MIT study concluded mail-in ballot fraud occurred at roughly 0.00006 percent of votes.

•A review cited by the Brennan Center of 84 million votes in 22 states yielded 14 instances referred for prosecution.

•An Associated Press post-2020 audit identified fewer than 475 potential instances across six battleground states out of about 25 million votes.

The largest database of proven cases

The most-cited public tally comes from the Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which catalogs proven instances that led to prosecutions or findings of wrongdoing.

That database lists approximately 1,465 proven cases over roughly 44 years in one summary and around 1,561 instances (with 1,325 convictions) in other Heritage reporting, and as of its last update in December 2025, cataloged 1,620 proven instances of fraud.

That represents on the order of 30–40 proven cases per year on average, and analyses note the database includes roughly 1,400 to 1,500 proven cases nationwide spanning several decades - a tiny number compared to billions of ballots cast.

The database itself is explicit that it is a sampling and not exhaustive.

Of those cases, types include double voting, absentee ballot fraud, registration fraud, and other misconduct. For example, analysts report only about 68 cases involving noncitizen voting going back to the 1980s out of 1,546 cases in one review, and a 2012 News21 review of 2,068 alleged election fraud cases found only 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud and 56 alleged cases of noncitizen voting.

Official election-security assessments

The federal agency responsible for election infrastructure security, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), called the 2020 election "the most secure in American history," and added: "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes or was in any way compromised".

For 2024, CISA said there was "no evidence of any malicious activity" affecting the integrity of the 2024 elections, and officials in Georgia and Pennsylvania confirmed the accuracy of election results after audits.

A declassified CISA report from 2019-2024 did note that election software contains real security weaknesses and that assessors were able to gain full network control of election office systems during penetration testing, but CISA found no evidence any vulnerability was exploited to change 2020 results.

Why the gap between perception and evidence?

•Rare but real: Fraud does happen. Cases prosecuted include absentee ballot trafficking, double voting across states, and registration fraud by individuals or operatives.

•Clerical errors often mistaken for fraud: Studies found most reported incidents are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices.

•No evidence of outcome-changing fraud in federal elections: Brookings' review concluded no federal outcome was changed in the samples examined, and researchers examining 2020 found no evidence of a widespread fraud effort relying on noncitizen voting or impersonation.

In short, election officials and researchers treat voter fraud as a real but exceedingly rare crime that is investigated and prosecuted when found, rather than a widespread problem that determines the outcome of national elections. Election administration in the US still emphasizes security measures - voter list maintenance, audit procedures, cybersecurity assessments, and post-election audits - to keep rates low and detect isolated incidents.

Citations (2)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
Backs: “Is voter fraud a problem in the US depends on definition - as an isolated crime it does occur, as a systemic issue that regularly changes election outcomes, credible research says no. What the data shows. The consensus from credible research and investigation is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare, and…”
2substack.comBlogs and newsletters
Unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud
Backs: “For example, analysts report only about 68 cases involving noncitizen voting going back to the 1980s out of 1,546 cases in one review, and a 2012 News21 review of 2,068 alleged election fraud cases found only 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud and 56 alleged cases of noncitizen voting. Official election-security…”