What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?

Today's US political climate is fast-moving — I'll map the major threats now.

In today's U.S. political climate analysts identify a cluster of inter-related threats ahead of the 2026 midterms:

1. Democratic backsliding and institutional erosion

Several key indicators of democracy in the United States have fallen to their lowest levels in 50 years, according to International IDEA's new report, The Global State of Democracy 2026. The report states that the United States "is experiencing a period of marked democratic decline" – a trend that has rapidly accelerated under the second Trump administration.

An Issue One health check describes the executive branch in President Trump's second term as now the most significant threat to elections, behaving more like a virus, drawing on authoritarian tactics and advancing a multi-pronged election takeover playbook.

That analysis rates the system's safeguards as:

•Congress: Critical Condition

•Internal executive branch checks: Critical Condition

•Information ecosystem: Critical Condition

and

•Election officials: Severely Stressed

•State political leadership: governors and state legislatures: Severely Stressed

Other cited signs of backsliding include:

•The administration's demand for state voter roll data and interference with mail-in voting, the pressures it applied to Georgia election officials to reverse Joe Biden's victory in that state in the 2020 election and extreme partisan gerrymandering

•Justice Kagan's criticism of Supreme Court majority decisions weakening the Voting Rights Act, loosening campaign finance restrictions and removing federal courts from addressing extreme partisan gerrymandering

•Courts have blocked nearly all provisions of President Trump's March 2025 executive order, but remain Stable but Under Stress

Public perception reflects this:

•A new national poll found 82% of voters are concerned that rights and freedoms are being taken away or rolled back

•A Grinnell College Poll found 70% of Americans agree that American democracy is in crisis

2. Intense and affective polarization

As national debates intensify entering the election year, three main dynamics are likely to drive unrest in 2026: the affordability crisis, tensions around federal operations, and intensifying political polarisation.

One of the key factors in democratic deterioration is the United States's high level of political polarization.

Polarization is a threat to democracy because it creates an "us versus them" dynamic, where political opponents are seen not just as people with different political views but as illegitimate actors who pose a risk to society.

When an electorate is highly polarized, many voters will tolerate – or even celebrate – undemocratic actions if they benefit their political movement or punish their opponents. Research on "false polarization" also finds Americans overestimate how extreme and hostile the other side is.

3. Threats to election integrity and federal overreach

Top voter concerns ahead of 2026 include:

•political leaders pressuring election officials to change election outcomes (67% are concerned "a great deal" or "a fair amount")

•ballots not being properly handled, counted or secured (57%)

•voter intimidation near polling places (52%)

Specific tactics cited by monitors include:

•DOJ lawsuits against 30 states for private voter data, federal investigations, threats of criminal charges, seizures of voting materials

•DOJ requests for names of election workers, and even raids of election offices increasingly being used to intimidate election administrators

•Efforts to eliminate mail-in ballots and ban voting machines, and tit-for-tat redistricting in states like Texas and California to benefit their preferred party

4. Political violence, harassment and intimidation

The threat of violent unrest, as well as politically motivated violence, also persists ahead of the elections, fuelled by growing polarisation, declining trust in institutions, and the amplification of views and grievances in online echo chambers.

Examples cited in 2025-2026:

•the June killing of Minnesota state legislator Melissa Hortman, the September shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and reported threats against Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene in November

•A growing culture of assassination, coupled with the Trump administration's progressive dismantling of much of the country's post-9/11 counterterrorism architecture, significantly raises the likelihood of violence before, during, and after the election

Harassment of officials is widespread:

•In early 2026, 54% of local elected officials reported experiencing insults, harassment, threats or attacks in the prior three months, and a Brennan Center survey found that 32% of local and state election officials have experienced threats, harassment or abuse

Analysis also warns of:

•Increased rhetoric from Trump and his allies around deploying federal law enforcement, including ICE agents, to polling places

•Federal immigration enforcement has emerged as a potential flashpoint for protest violence, with deployments to sanctuary cities including Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland despite opposition from local officials

5. Misinformation, disinformation and information ecosystem collapse

America's information environment is in critical condition.

•Big tech platforms are built to reward outrage, polarization, and sensational falsehoods, supercharging false election narratives to spread faster than corrections

•The rise of AI-generated political content adds a new layer of risk, making it cheaper and easier to flood voters with convincing fake images, audio, and disinformation at scale

•Local media continues to disappear, while independent media faces increasing political pressure

Polling on misinformation:

•About three-quarters of U.S. adults say misinformation is leading to more extreme political views and behaviors such as instances of violence based on race, religion or gender

•Overall, 91% of adults say the spread of misinformation is a problem, with 74% calling it a major problem

•Big majorities of both parties — 80% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans — say misinformation increases extreme political views

•Similarly, 85% of Democrats and 72% of Republicans say misinformation increases hate crimes

6. Economic and governance stress

Economic concerns are central to recent demonstrations and approval ratings:

•Recent polling suggests that public views of the economy are closely tied to President Trump's approval ratings, with 76 percent viewing the economy negatively

•Analysts describe an affordability crisis — inflation, housing and grocery costs, and cuts to education, healthcare, and welfare spending — as likely to drive sustained unrest into 2026

Citations (4)

1substack.comBlogs and newsletters
What Canada Can Learn from Polarization in the US
Backs: “political climate analysts identify a cluster of inter-related threats ahead of the 2026 midterms: 1. Democratic backsliding and institutional erosion. Several key indicators of democracy in the United States have fallen to their lowest levels in 50 years, according to International IDEA's new report, The Global State…”
2issueone.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Health Check for the 2026 Elections: Are the Safeguards Still Holding?
Backs: “The report states that the United States "is experiencing a period of marked democratic decline" – a trend that has rapidly accelerated under the second Trump administration. An Issue One health check describes the executive branch in President Trump's second term as now the most significant threat to elections,…”
3s-rminform.comCompanies
Trouble ahead: Rising political tensions foreshadow 2026 US midterm elections
Backs: “A Grinnell College Poll found 70% of Americans agree that American democracy is in crisis. 2. Intense and affective polarization. As national debates intensify entering the election year, three main dynamics are likely to drive unrest in 2026: the affordability crisis, tensions around federal operations, and…”
4capitolhillblue.comNot yet classified
Poll: Most Americans say misinformation fuels growth in political extremism
Backs: “Local media continues to disappear, while independent media faces increasing political pressure. Polling on misinformation: About three-quarters of U.S. adults say misinformation is leading to more extreme political views and behaviors such as instances of violence based on race, religion or gender”