Does the minimum wage need to keep up with the cost of living?
Sources such as EPI and the California ballot argument say minimum wage increases do not cause job losses, while the Cornell article, CBO and business groups say increases cost jobs or raise prices.
This is a policy question with valid arguments on multiple sides, but let me get some current data to ground the discussion.# Should the Minimum Wage Keep Up With Cost of Living?
This is a genuinely contested policy question with substantial evidence and arguments on multiple sides. Here's a balanced look:
The Case For Indexing to Cost of Living
Erosion of purchasing power is real and significant. The U.S. federal minimum wage has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009 In 2009, Congress increased it to $7.25 per hour with the Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007. It has not been increased since. Because it was never designed to automatically adjust, First enacted in 1938, the federal minimum wage has traditionally not been tied to any particular index—as a result, it has only been increased through sporadic acts of Congress.
The purchasing power loss is substantial: its purchasing power or real value has dropped by 27% because of increases in the cost of living, and as a result, the value of the minimum wage is the lowest since 1956. By one estimate, $7.25 in July 2009 (when the last wage hike took effect) is equal to $10.50 in March 2024 — meaning workers have lost roughly 30% of their real income.
Many states have already moved this direction. Rather than waiting on Congress, thirty states, Washington D.C., and dozens of local jurisdictions have raised wages independently, and several now build in automatic inflation adjustments so the value doesn't erode again.
Even a Democratic president has pushed for automatic indexing — in 2013, President Barack Obama called for an increase in the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.00 an hour. But he also went a step further, arguing that the minimum wage should automatically rise with the cost of living.
The Case Against (or for Caution)
Business groups warn of employment effects. The National Retail Federation and National Federation of Independent Businesses have argued that significant minimum wage increases would lead to less hiring, limited business growth and decreased consumer demand.
Some economists argue it can be self-defeating through a wage-price spiral: An increase in the minimum wage may also result in increased wages across the board for workers of all levels. As a result, management could spread the cost in increased wages to the consumers of their goods by increasing prices. In turn, the very workers whom the increase in minimum wage was intended to benefit could face higher costs of living.
The CBO itself has flagged trade-offs. The Congressional Budget Office argued that while a minimum wage increase would benefit some families by raising their household income above the federal poverty threshold, it would also eliminate many jobs.
Where the Evidence Actually Lands
The employment-loss argument is more contested empirically than it might seem. A widely cited example: Since 1916, opponents have cried "the sky is falling" every time the minimum wage was increased. Yet business keeps growing. Princeton economist David Card found California's employment actually rose after our 1988 minimum wage increase. Card's research (with Alan Krueger) on this topic is a landmark in labor economics and helped shift consensus toward smaller-than-predicted job losses from modest minimum wage increases.
Meanwhile, current federal minimum wage income is stark: A minimum wage employee earning $7.25 an hour who is working full-time earns about $15,080 (which is just $20 more than the poverty level).
Bottom Line
There's no single "correct" answer — it depends on values and economic assumptions:
The federal minimum wage's 16-year freeze at $7.25 is somewhat unusual historically and has left it at multi-decade lows in real terms — a data point that fuels much of the current push for automatic indexing at the state level, even without federal action.
Citations (11)
- Minimum wage in the United States
Source excerpt: “[[4]](./Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States#cite_note-inflation-US-4) [[5]](./Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States#cite_note-:5-5) [[6]](./Minimum_wage_in_...”
evidence, reference entry, points to yes. Claim: The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009 after the Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 and has not been increased since.
- Obama calls for $9 federal minimum wage pegged to cost of living
Source excerpt: “First enacted in 1938, the federal minimum wage has traditionally not been tied to any particular index—as a result, it has only been increased throug...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The federal minimum wage has traditionally not been tied to any index and has risen only through sporadic acts of Congress.
- Tying minimum-wage increases to inflation, as 13 states do, will lift up low-wage workers and their families across the country
Source excerpt: “Since then, its purchasing power or real value has dropped by 27% because of increases in the cost of living. As a result, the value of the minimum wa...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: The federal minimum wage's real value has dropped by 27% due to cost-of-living increases, the lowest since 1956.
- Here’s what minimum wage would be if it kept up with inflation
Source excerpt: “The states that raised their minimum wages in 2024 · According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, $7.25 in July 2009 (when the last wage hike took eff...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: $7.25 in July 2009 equals about $10.50 in March 2024, implying roughly 30% loss in real income.
- Tying minimum-wage increases to inflation, as 13 states do, will lift up low-wage workers and their families across the country
Source excerpt: “In response, thirty states, Washington D.C., and dozens of local ... Connecticut and Nevada are scheduled to introduce indexing to their minimum wage...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Thirty states, DC and dozens of localities raised wages independently, and several have automatic inflation adjustments.
- Obama calls for $9 federal minimum wage pegged to cost of living
Source excerpt: “In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama called for an increase in the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.00 an hour. But he ...”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Obama called in 2013 for a $9.00 minimum wage that automatically rises with the cost of living.
- Minimum Wage vs. Cost of Living: How Do They Compare? | Indeed.com
Source excerpt: “Some of the most notable minimum wage and cost of living arguments include: The National Retail Federation and National Federation of Independent Busi...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: The National Retail Federation and NFIB argue large minimum wage increases would reduce hiring, business growth and consumer demand.
- What to Do with the Minimum Wage: Counter Arguments (Part Two)
Source excerpt: “An increase in the minimum wage may also result in increased wages across the board for workers of all levels. As a result, management could spread th...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Higher minimum wages may be passed on as higher prices, raising the cost of living for the workers meant to benefit.
- What to Do with the Minimum Wage: Counter Arguments (Part Two)
Source excerpt: “The Congressional Budget Office argued that while a minimum wage increase would benefit some families by raising their household income above the fede...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: The CBO argued a minimum wage increase would lift some families above poverty but also eliminate many jobs.
- vigarchive.sos.ca.gov
Source excerpt: “Since 1916, opponents have cried ''the sky is falling" every time the minimum wage was increased.Yet business keeps growing. Princeton economist David...”
evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: David Card found California employment rose after the 1988 minimum wage increase; opponents have long predicted harm that did not materialize.
- Here’s what minimum wage would be if it kept up with inflation
Source excerpt: “A minimum wage employee earning $7.25 an hour who is working full-time earns about $15,080 (which is just $20 more than the poverty level).”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: A full-time worker at $7.25 earns about $15,080, just $20 above the poverty level.