Is voter fraud a problem in the US?
Voter Fraud in the US: What the Research Shows
The overwhelming body of academic and nonpartisan research finds that voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States, though it is not literally zero.
What multiple studies have found
Academic consensus: Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
In-person impersonation fraud — the type most often cited to justify voter ID laws — is essentially nonexistent:
Mail-in voting fraud is also minuscule: research published by the Brookings Institute found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, and in the 2020 election that figure was just 0.000051% of mail ballots cast.
Noncitizen voting: Noncitizens are not permitted to vote in state and federal elections, and it's a federal crime for them to do so, and every legitimate study ever done on the question shows that voting by noncitizens in state and federal elections is vanishingly rare.
Even conservative-leaning sources find similar patterns. Reviewing the Heritage Foundation's own "Election Fraud Database" (which tracks fraud cases going back decades), a Brookings analysis noted that scrolling through the database at first glance offers the impression that there's a lot of fraud—but a more careful look reveals just the opposite, since compiling thousands of instances required going back decades over hundreds of millions of votes cast. A Brookings scholar summarized: "There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign. But it's not systemic. It's not widespread."
No election outcome has been altered: Looking at Arizona specifically, the percentage of fraudulent votes over the last 25 years of elections was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has ever been altered by ballot fraud.
Bipartisan officials agree: Even under the first Trump administration, statements by senior officials, including Attorney General Bill Barr and chief cybersecurity official Chris Krebs, confirmed that no significant fraud was present in the 2020 election.
The gap between belief and evidence
Despite this evidence, public perception differs sharply from the data — and that gap tracks political affiliation. Partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, and conspiratorial thinking is also strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of election fraud.
Bottom line
As one researcher put it, the amount of voter fraud in the United States is not zero, but it is very close to zero. Isolated cases do occur and are prosecuted, but decades of studies across partisan lines find no evidence of the widespread, systemic fraud that would be needed to actually alter election outcomes.
Citations (13)
- Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Research over the past two decades has found no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 b...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: A 2014 Washington Post study found 31 credible impersonation fraud instances from 2000 to 2014 among over 1 billion ballots.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for · voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent...”
statistic, official document, points to no. Claim: Brennan Center review found incident rates between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent in meticulously studied elections.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Given this tiny · incident rate for voter impersonation fraud, it is more likely, the report noted, that an American · “will be struck by lightning th...”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Americans are more likely to be struck by lightning than to impersonate another voter at the polls.
- Study Finds No Evidence of Widespread Voter Fraud
Source excerpt: “A study of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases in 50 states between 2000 and 2012 found the level of fraud was infinitesimal compared with the 146 mill...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: News21 analysis of 2,068 alleged fraud cases found infinitesimal fraud compared with 146 million registered voters, with only 10 impersonation cases.
- The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings research found mail-in voting fraud is 0.000043% of mail ballots, and 0.000051% in 2020.
- The Myth of Voter Fraud | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “Noncitizens are not permitted to vote in state and federal elections. It’s a federal crime for noncitizens to register or vote in federal elections, a...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Noncitizen voting is a federal crime and studies show it is vanishingly rare.
- how widespread is election fraud in the united states not very
Source excerpt: “Scrolling through the Heritage database at first glance offers the impression that there’s a lot of fraud—but a more careful look reveals just the opp...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Closer look at Heritage's fraud database shows little fraud relative to hundreds of millions of votes cast over decades.
- Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign," West said. "But it's not systemic. It's not widespread.”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings scholar said there are a few fraud cases in every campaign but it's not systemic or widespread.
- how widespread is election fraud in the united states not very
Source excerpt: “• The percentage of fraudulent votes in Arizona over the last 25 years of elections was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Arizona fraudulent votes over 25 years were .0000845%, and no U.S. election outcome has been altered by ballot fraud.
- How common is voter fraud?
Source excerpt: “But added to the reasons above are statements by senior officials in the Trump administration, including Attorney General Bill Barr and chief cybersec...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Trump administration officials Barr and Krebs confirmed no significant fraud in the 2020 election.
- Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Partisanship and conspiratorial thinking correlate with belief that election fraud is common, with Republicans more likely to endorse it.
- How common is voter fraud?
Source excerpt: “So the amount of voter fraud in the United States is not zero, but it is very close to zero. ”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Researcher said the amount of voter fraud is not zero but very close to zero.