Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

NoSays it is contested

I'll research this topic to give you a well-sourced, balanced answer based on available data and studies.Based on extensive research from multiple academic, nonpartisan, and even conservative sources, voter fraud is not a significant problem in the United States when measured empirically—though it remains a widely debated political topic. Here's what the evidence shows:

What the data says

Multiple studies using different methodologies and datasets consistently find extremely low fraud rates:

•A Department of Justice unit specifically tasked with finding federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 elections and found that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

•A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast, and even that tiny number is likely inflated since researchers counted allegations, not just convictions.

•For mail-in voting specifically, research published by the Brookings Institute found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, equivalent to roughly four out of every 10 million. Even in 2020, when mail voting hit record highs, fraud cases comprised just 0.000051% of the mail ballots cast.

•Notably, this Brookings analysis drew on a Heritage Foundation database—a conservative think tank that actively tracks fraud cases—and comparing states with heavy mail voting to others, researchers found "no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall".

•Even Heritage's own extensive database, often cited by those concerned about fraud, lists only 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions spanning decades—a tiny number relative to the billions of votes cast nationally over that period.

•Academic consensus reinforces this: research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

Specific claims examined

Detailed investigations into high-profile allegations have found no support:

•A 2017 analysis published in The Washington Post concluded that there is no evidence to support Trump's claim that Massachusetts residents were bused into New Hampshire to vote.

•Regarding non-citizen voting, a 2014 paper concluded that "the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0".

•After the disputed 2020 election, an Associated Press count of voter fraud cases in six battleground states found fewer than 475 votes in all six states combined—less than two-tenths of one percent of Biden's margin of victory. Critically, the AP study found no systematic collusion or "rigging" in those cases; nearly every one was an individual acting alone.

Why the disconnect between data and public perception?

Despite this evidence, fraud fears persist and are highly partisan. A 2024 survey found that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common. Researchers also found that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.

Experts note this gap matters for policy: as one Brookings researcher put it, "there are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign, but it's not systemic, it's not widespread... people often pick on isolated cases and turn it into a systemic and widespread pattern".

Bottom line

The empirical research—from government investigations, academic studies, and even fraud databases maintained by conservative organizations—overwhelmingly shows that voter fraud occurs at rates so low (typically measured in thousandths or millionths of a percent) that it has not been shown to alter the outcome of any recent federal election. However, this remains a politically contentious issue, with significant portions of the public (particularly along partisan lines) believing fraud is more widespread than the data supports.

Citations (15)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed with the goal of finding instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: A DOJ unit examining the 2002 and 2004 elections found 0.00000013 percent of ballots were fraudulent.
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 b...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: A 2014 Washington Post study found 31 credible impersonation fraud instances from 2000 to 2014 among over 1 billion ballots.
3time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings research found mail-in voting fraud accounts for 0.000043% of mail ballots cast.
4time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “In the 2020 election, in which a record number of Americans voted by mail and which Trump has repeatedly claimed he lost as a result of voter fraud, t...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: In 2020, with record mail voting, fraud cases comprised just 0.000051% of mail ballots.
5time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “To make its calculations, Brookings drew on a Heritage Foundation database of election fraud cases that “ended in a finding that the individual engage...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings analysis drew on a Heritage Foundation fraud case database and found no evidence mail voting increases fraud risk.
6newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “2024 ElectionPresidential electionDonald TrumpKamala HarrisVoter FraudFraudSwing StatesThe Heritage Foundation2024 ElectionPresidential electionDonald...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Heritage's database lists only 1,561 instances of voter fraud and 1,325 convictions spanning decades.
7frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Research over two decades found no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
8arxiv.orgAcademic
American Views About Election Fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “### 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contempora...”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Research over the past two decades found no evidence of significant election fraud in national elections.
9brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “· A 2017 analysis published in The Washington Post concluded that there is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that Massachusetts residents were buse...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: A 2017 Washington Post analysis found no evidence for Trump's claim of Massachusetts residents bused into New Hampshire to vote.
10brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “· A 2014 paper concluded that “the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.” ”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: A 2014 paper concluded the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.
11electioninnovation.orgAcademic
How common is voter fraud?
Source excerpt: “A count by the Associated Press of voter fraud cases in the six battleground states in 2020 that were disputed by Donald Trump found fewer than 475 vo...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: AP count in six disputed battleground states found fewer than 475 fraudulent votes, under 0.2% of Biden's margin.
12electioninnovation.orgAcademic
How common is voter fraud?
Source excerpt: “Importantly, the AP study also found no systematic collusion or “rigging” in those cases. Nearly every one was an individual acting alone.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: AP found no systematic collusion or rigging; nearly every case was an individual acting alone.
13harvard.eduAcademic
American Views About Election Fraud in 2024 - ADS
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
evidence, reference entry, neutral. Claim: A 2024 survey found partisanship correlates strongly with endorsing types of election fraud, with Republicans more likely to say they are common.
14frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Conspiratorial thinking correlates strongly with belief in election fraud even when controlling for partisanship.
15newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign," West said. "But it's not systemic. It's not widespread. It's generally not organized, a...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A Brookings researcher said a few fraud cases occur in every campaign but it is not systemic or widespread.