Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

NoSays it is contested

This is a genuinely contested political topic where experts and studies reach different conclusions depending on methodology and what exactly is being measured. Let me search for current, credible data on this.## Short answer: No, not in terms of actual documented fraud — but there's a big gap between the data and public perception.

What the research shows:

Academic research is remarkably consistent on this point. Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

The data backs this up dramatically:

•Brennan Center analysis: Studies reviewing elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. A specific look at 2002-2004 federal elections found that a Department of Justice unit was able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent, with no evidence that any of these incidents involved in-person impersonation fraud.

•Brookings Institution: Looking at Heritage Foundation's own data (a conservative think tank that tracks fraud cases), researchers found that in Arizona, over 36 elections spanning 25 years with 42,626,379 ballots cast, there were only 36 cases of fraud — a rate of 0.0000845%. In Pennsylvania, data going back 30 years across 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast found only 39 cases of voter fraud.

•Mail-in voting specifically: In the 2020 election, researchers calculated that fraud cases comprised just 0.000051% of the mail ballots cast. A separate study comparing states with widespread mail voting to other states found "no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall."

•Texas case study: Despite strict voter ID laws justified by fraud concerns, the chief law enforcement official in Texas knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea involving in-person voter fraud in all Texas elections from 2002 through 2014.

•Even the Heritage Foundation's own "Election Fraud Database" — often cited by those concerned about fraud — found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions across the entire country over many years, which is a tiny number relative to the hundreds of millions of votes cast nationally each cycle.

Why the perception differs from reality:

There's a significant partisan gap in beliefs about fraud. A 2024 survey found that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even controlling for other factors, and that conspiratorial thinking is also strongly correlated with belief in fraud, even controlling for partisanship.

Experts attribute the rarity of fraud partly to deterrence: it's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail, making it a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody — it's probably a very small number of people who even attempt it, according to a Brookings senior fellow.

Bottom line: Documented, prosecuted voter fraud in the U.S. is exceptionally rare — occurring at rates far too small to affect election outcomes, even in closely contested races. However, belief that fraud is widespread remains common among a significant share of the public, particularly correlating with partisan affiliation and conspiratorial thinking rather than with the actual evidence.

Citations (11)

1frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Research over the past two decades has found no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Studies of meticulously reviewed elections found voter fraud incident rates between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent.
3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Yet the · chief law enforcement official in the state responsible for such prosecutions knew of only one · conviction and one guilty plea that involve...”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Texas's chief law enforcement official knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea for in-person voter fraud from 2002 through 2014.
4brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Source excerpt: “Looking at the seven closest states, we find for instance that in Arizona, Heritage had to go back 25 years, over which there were 36 elections held a...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Heritage data show only 36 fraud cases in Arizona over 36 elections and 25 years, with over 42 million ballots cast.
5brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Source excerpt: “In the highly contested state of Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found onl...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Pennsylvania Heritage data over 30 years and 32 elections with 100 million-plus votes found only 39 fraud cases.
6time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “In the 2020 election, in which a record number of Americans voted by mail and which Trump has repeatedly claimed he lost as a result of voter fraud, t...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: In 2020, fraud cases made up just 0.000051% of mail ballots cast.
7time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Comparing the number of voter fraud cases in states where a large portion of voters receive ballots by mail to that in other states, the study found “...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: A study comparing heavy mail-voting states with others found no evidence that mail voting increases voter fraud risk overall.
8brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “Yet the chief law enforcement official in the state responsible for such prosecutions knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea that involved in...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Texas's top law enforcement official knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea for in-person voter fraud from 2002 to 2014.
9newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the "Election Fraud Database," which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Heritage's Election Fraud Database found 1,561 fraud instances and 1,325 convictions nationwide, tiny relative to total votes cast.
10frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Partisanship and conspiratorial thinking correlate strongly with belief that election fraud is common, with Republicans more likely to say so.
11newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"It's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail. So that's a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody," Dar...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A Brookings senior fellow attributes fraud's rarity to deterrence, since ballot fraud is a criminal offense and most people avoid jail.